Modelling the impacts of intensifying forest management on carbon budget across a long latitudinal gradient in Europe

nonPeerReviewe

Effectiveness of Forest Management Strategies to Mitigate Effects of Global Change in South-Central Siberia

We investigated questions about the ability of broad silvicultural strategies to achieve multiple objectives (reduce disturbance losses, maintain the abundance of preferred species, mitigate fragmentation and loss of age-class diversity, and sequester aboveground carbon) under future climate conditions in Siberia. We conducted a factorial experiment using the LANDIS-II landscape disturbance and succession model. Treatments included varying the size and amount of areas cut and the cutting method (selective or clearcut). Simultaneously, the model simulated natural disturbances (fire, wind, insect out-breaks) and forest succession under projected future climate conditions as predicted by an ensemble of global circulation models. The cutting method and cutting rate treatments generally had a large effect on species and age-class composition, residual living biomass, and susceptibility to disturbance, whereas cutblock size had no effect. Cutblock size affected only measures of fragmentation, but cutting method and cutting rate often had an even greater effect. Based on the results, we simulated a “recommended” strategy and compared it with the current forest management practice. The recommended strat-egy resulted in greater forest biomass, increased abundance of favored species, and reduced fragmentation, but it did not sig-nificantly reduce losses by disturbance. No single strategy appears able to achieve all possible forest management objectives

Avoiding a Lemons Market by Including Uncertainty in the Kyoto Protocol: Same Mechanism - Improved Rules

In its current form the Kyoto Protocol does not consider the issue of uncertainty in the process of mutual recognition of emission reductions between Parties. We argue that lack of appropriate institutions that police emission reporting will lead to a disintegration of the carbon market due to competition induced quality deterioration of reporting. The introduction of a verification clause in the Protocols rules would be a first step towards avoiding disintegrative tendencies and carry the potential of improving the Protocols effectiveness. Building on a physical approach of verification times we derive an economic model of optimal emission and uncertainty reduction to reach a verifiable emission target. In such a set-up, depending on its competitive advantage, a Party can choose to reduce emissions and/or the associated uncertainties or trade verified certificates. Thus, the proposed model is intended to help prioritize efforts to reach verifiable emission reductions with least costs within a Kyoto type framework

Towards harmonizing competing models: Russian forests' net primary production case study

This paper deals with the issue of reconciling competing stochastic estimates provided by independent sources. We employ an integration method based on a principle of mutual compatibility of prior estimates. The method does not take into account credibility of the sources of the estimates, including their past performance. The quality of integration is evaluated in terms of change in the probability distribution. We use the method to integrate two types of estimates of the annual Net Primary Production (NPP) of the forest ecosystems in seven bioclimatic zones in Russia. The estimates are generated based on an empirical landscape-ecosystem approach and on an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models; the gaps in thei estimates reach 23%. Elimination of the gaps may help better quantify the input of the terrestrial ecosystems to the global carbon cyce. The main result of this paper is the evidence of applicability of the method for selection a set of candidates for credible integrated estimates of uncertain ecological parameters (like forest NPP) integrating prior estimates

The effects of climate change and abatement policies on the value of natural resources in Northern Europe and in the Arctic Sea area

The impact of the climate on the Arctic plays a crucial role for Finland’s, as well as other Nordic countries’ current and future climatic conditions. Far-reaching and multi-faceted changes are taking place in the Arctic, which have profound consequences for the region’s economic and political significance in international relations. The review analyses the effects of climate change and likely climate abatement policies on the accessibility and value of natural resources in Northern Europe in the Arctic Sea area and on the logistical position of Northern Europe with a special emphasis on Finland

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

Changes in land use and management led to a decline in Eastern Europe’s terrestrial carbon sink

Land-based mitigation is essential in reducing net carbon emissions. Yet, the attribution of carbon fluxes remains highly uncertain, in particular for the forest-rich region of Eastern Europe (incl. Western Russia). Here we integrate various data sources to show that Eastern Europe accounted for an above-ground biomass carbon sink of ~0.41 gigatons of carbon per year over the period 2010–2019, that is 78% of the entire European carbon sink. We find that this carbon sink is declining, mainly driven by changes in land use and land management, but also by increasing natural disturbances. Based on a random forest model, we show that land use and management changes are main drivers of the declining carbon sink in Eastern Europe, although soil moisture variability is also important. Specifically, the saturation effect of tree regrowth in abandoned agricultural areas, combined with increasing wood harvest removals, particularly in European Russia, contributed to the decrease in the Eastern European carbon sink

Spatial distribution of arable and abandoned land across former Soviet Union countries

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of agricultural abandonment following the collapse of the Soviet Union is highly uncertain. To help improve this situation, we have developed a new map of arable and abandoned land for 2010 at a 10 arc-second resolution. We have fused together existing land cover and land use maps at different temporal and spatial scales for the former Soviet Union (fSU) using a training data set collected from visual interpretation of very high resolution (VHR) imagery. We have also collected an independent validation data set to assess the map accuracy. The overall accuracies of the map by region and country, i.e. Caucasus, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation and Ukraine, are 90±2%, 84±2%, 92±1%, 78±3%, 95±1%, 83±2%, respectively. This new product can be used for numerous applications including the modelling of biogeochemical cycles, land-use modelling, the assessment of trade-offs between ecosystem services and land-use potentials (e.g., agricultural production), among others

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): Facing the Challenges and Pathways of Global Change in the Twenty-first Century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies codesigned with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts